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Tesla Q2 2025 Deals: Save Big on Your Next Ride!

Tesla is offering a bunch of incentives this quarter, so I put together a list of all the ones I’m aware of for your reference. If you’re in the market for a new vehicle and have questions, feel free to reach out! When it’s time to order, don’t miss out on three months of free Full Self-Driving by using my referral link: https://ts.la/daniel26500 Referral Program Incentive Description: New buyer gets 3 months of FSD when using a current owner’s referral link Products: All Tesla vehicles, Solar, Powerwall Regions: United States, Canada End Date: June 30, 2025 Free FSD Transfer ...

May 17, 2025 · 3 min · dburkland
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2025 Tesla Q1 Earnings Call Notes

Introduction Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call was a long one, going almost 90 minutes. On the call Tesla leadership discussed a wide variety of topics including autonomy, Optimus, and energy, alongside its financial performance. They reiterated their commitment on bringing out new, low cost models in 2025 and provided more detail on their Unsupervised FSD rollout starting in Austin, TX this June. Here are my raw notes from the call: ...

April 23, 2025 · 4 min · dburkland
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UPDATED: How to Setup USB Storage For Tesla Sentry Mode (and more!)

UPDATE: 2025-03-25 Intro 4+ years ago Tesla released Tesla OS 2020.48.26 (aka the “Holiday Update” for 2020) which included several new features and games. One of the more popular features was Tesla Boombox which allowed owners to play several included sounds plus up to 5 custom sounds over the external Pedestrian Warning Speaker (PWS). They have also since released the ability to set custom Lock Sounds. To get the most out of your Tesla USB storage device, I have included instructions below that explain how to partition your USB storage device to take advantage of the following features: ...

March 23, 2025 · 8 min · dburkland
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2024 Tesla Q4 Earnings Call Notes

Key Notes and Takeaways From 2024 Record Deliveries: Tesla set a new record for vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024, achieving an annualized rate close to 2 million vehicles. This was attributed to excellent work by the Tesla team in production and delivery management. Model Y Dominance: The Model Y was declared the best-selling vehicle globally in 2024, surpassing all other vehicles, not just EVs, highlighting Tesla’s market penetration. Autonomy Ambitions: Elon Musk stressed Tesla’s commitment to autonomy, predicting significant advancements in unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, with a planned launch in Austin in June 2025. Optimus Development: Tesla is rapidly developing Optimus, with plans to produce several thousand units for internal use by the end of 2025. The long-term vision sees Optimus contributing over $1 trillion in revenue. Energy Storage Growth: Tesla is expanding its energy storage capabilities with new factories, emphasizing the role of storage in enhancing grid efficiency and meeting future demand. Financial Performance: Despite challenges like lower ASPs due to discounts and financing options, Tesla grew both its auto and energy storage volumes, focusing on inventory reduction and cost per vehicle. Autonomy ...

January 30, 2025 · 4 min · dburkland
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2024 Tesla Q3 Earnings Call Notes

Introduction Tesla’s Q3 2024 earnings call was a banger, revealing the company’s current standing as well as their future plans. If you are pressed for time or would just like a quick overview of today’s call, here is my summary based on the notes I recorded. Enjoy! Autonomy We, Robot event was successful, thousands of people were transported autonomously without a single incident 20 Cybercabs and 30 Model Y vehicles were present at the event FSD v12.5 introduced support for Cybertruck and end-to-end on highway support with a single stack Actually Smart Summon (ASS) widely released FSD v13 expected to provide 5-6x improvement in miles between intervention when compared to v12.5 When looking at the entire year (January 1st, 2024 - December 31st, 2024), Tesla expects miles between intervention to increase by 3 orders of magnitude Critical interventions have been reduced by 100x from early 2024 to present FSD v13 is expected to reduce critical interventions by 1000x from early 2024 Higher frame rate coming with FSD v13 By Q2 2025, Tesla aims to surpass the average miles between critical interventions for humans; This means at this point Tesla FSD will be statistically safer than a human driver Tesla will continue to offer up a free 30-day trial of FSD with every major release of FSD FSD take rate continues to increase significantly, especially after the 10/10 event Tesla has been operating a ride-hailing capability for employees in the Bay Area for almost a year now This ride-hailing offering has been utilizing safety drivers Ride-hailing is going to be rolled out to the public in 2025 for California, pending regulatory approval; Texas likely to be first due to faster regulatory process Q3 vehicle safety report: 1 crash per 7M miles of Autopilot usage (10x safer than US average) AI training capacity has been expanded for FSD and Optimus needs With recent additions in compute capacity, Tesla is not currently training compute constrained FSD problem areas are becoming more difficult to find as reliability improves (good problem) The new Optimus hand and forearm demoed at the We, Robot event, offers 22 degrees of freedom “We have the most advanced humanoid robot by a long shot, and moreover, the only company that has the ingredients ready to scale humanoid robots” -Elon Musk Elon believes Optimus will one day be Tesla’s most valuable product Vast majority of 7M vehicles produced are capable of autonomy Tesla has started training FSD with their current fleet of Semis Cybercab will be built to FMVSS regulations for nationwide sales like all other Tesla vehicles Tesla found it easier to focus FSD development on HW4 and backport to HW3 For HW3 owners, Tesla has reassured them they will be taken care of if HW3 proves to not be adequate for their cars to support unsupervised FSD “There is some chance that HW3 will not achieve a safety level that will allow for unsupervised FSD. If that turns out to be the case, we will upgrade those who bought HW3 & FSD for free” -Elon Musk xAI has been helpful to Tesla in scaling up training infrastructure and improving training resiliency Elon reiterated xAI’s goal of working on general artificial super intelligence while Tesla is hyperfocused on autonoomous cars and robots Elon mentioned that he believed that Tesla is one of hte most efficiecnt inference AI companies out there “It’s (Grok) answering questions on a 10kW rack, it’s like we can’t put that in a car, it’s a different problem” -Elon Musk “Please no!” -Lars Moravy When asked if Tesla will introduce support for X & Grok in-car, Elon said that would be"small fry things" He then went on to say in-car infotainment will continue to be a big focus, especially as autonomy performance grows Tesla will further improve the in-car browser experience so you can access anything Elon advocated for a national approval process for autonomy Low-cost models ...

October 23, 2024 · 6 min · dburkland

Tesla FSD Beta 11.4 Video Series

Tonight I received FSD Beta v11.4.1 and so I wanted to create a new blog post for all of my v11.4 videos that I’ll be posting over the next few weeks. Enjoy! https://youtu.be/XazoLbapxJI Tesla - FSD Beta 11.4.1 - Chowen Ave UPL Torture Test This video contains footage recorded on the evening of May 13th, 2023 of FSD Beta 11.4.1 taking my unprotected left (UPL) turn torture test onto Chowen Ave S from highway MN-13 S. I previously attempted this test w/ FSD Beta 11.3.6 (see link below). Unlike with v11.3, v11.4.1 exhibited none of the lane selection issues that we previously witnessed towards the end of each attempt. ...

May 12, 2023 · 2 min · dburkland
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2023 Tesla Q1 Earnings Call Notes

Like I have done with previous earnings calls, I have compiled notes that I wanted to share from today’s 2023 Tesla Q1 Earnings Call. Enjoy! Opening remarks from Elon Musk General Model Y became best selling vehicle of any category in Europe & best-selling non-pickup truck vehicle in the United States Lots of uncertainty with macroeconomic climate Lowered prices while still maintaining some of the best margins in the industry Elon believes higher volume and lower cost is the right way forward for Tesla (vs low volume / high margin) Elon believes more margin to be unlocked thanks to autonomy Tesla is taking advantage of the current economic conditions as well as their position in their market Cybertruck Alpha versions of the Cybertruck continue to be built on the pilot line at Giga Texas Completing installation of volume production Cybertruck line at Giga Texas Cybertruck delivery event tentatively planned for Q3 Like all new products, Cybertruck production ramp will take time and follow S-curve (slow and accelerates over time) “A hall of famer” -Elon Musk (regarding Cybertruck) “Cybertruck is a very radicular product and not made in the same way other cars are made” -Elon Musk Energy & Mission Energy storage deployment in Q1 reached nearly 4GWH, thanks in part to production ramp at Lathrop Shanghai also mentioned Elon reiterated that stationary storage growth will exceed vehicle growth FSD Crossed over 150M millions driven by FSD Beta and this number continues to grow exponentially Tesla has key data advantage here due to the sheer size of the data training set (which constantly grows) Very focused on NN training capabilities which is a key factor in achieving full autonomy Making significant purchases of GPUs while simultaneously continuing to develop Dojo (which still has potential to replace traditional GPU clusters for training use cases) Dojo as a service is still on the table (think AWS-like offering) Opening remarks from Zach Kirkhorn Record vehicle production & deliveries Record energy volumes Automotive gross margin and operating margin reduced sequentially but still remain at healthy levels Automotive gross margins were impacted: Additional action to improve vehicle pricing One-time items like warranty adjustments on older Model S & X vehicles Deferred revenue on certain Autopilot features Further progress in reducing vehicle costs was made thanks to several logistical improvements as well as the start of commodities savings Giga Texas & Giga Berlin will continue to be margin headwinds until they reach their target volumes Q1 was the 3rd quarter in a multi-quarter plan to move to more regionally balanced mix of build & deliveries Results with lower deliveries than production in a quarter due to higher number of vehicles in transit at EOQ Particularly important & applicable to Model S & X as they started to deliver internationally Storage business is starting to take shape Growing at % of total revenue Growth driven by increasing demand for energy storage Highest gross profit yet in Q1 Approach is to grow volumes in vehicle & energy businesses as quickly as possible while focusing on: Cybertruck Next-gen platform I\n house cell production Autonomy & AI products Keeping the business healthy Q & A from Retail Investors Pricing Pricing is reviewed weekly based on where they are at globally Energy Storage Elon predicts Energy Storage to eclipse Vehicle business in terms of GWh (vehicle business may still be bigger in terms of revenue) As business grows and smooths out they will start including volumes in their reports later this year The goal is to get margins to match automotive business (~20%) by EOY 4680s Texas 4680 factory (about 50% complete) will be about 70% lower CapEx per GWh than typical cell factories (when fully ramped, inline with what was discussed at battery day) Still continuing to produce first-gen tabless cell (Kato Road Facility in California) as well as 2nd gen (more manufacturable version) at Texas today Corpus Christi Lithium refinery breaks ground in May and is expected to be partially online by end of this year Refinery uses sulfate-free spodumene refining process (produces beneficial byproduct which can be used in construction products) Demonstrated cathode precursor process (discussed at battery day) is now in final detailed design phase Cathode production is 50% equipment & 75% utilities installed at new Cathode plant in Austin Dry & wet commissioning this quarter and next quarter, first material production will be ready by end of year Big improvements with 4680 structural pack manufacturing 50% lower CapEx, 66% smaller factory for same output Will continue to use this design going forward and iterate design to B level (from current A architecture) Q1 was all about cost & quality Texas 4680 production increased 50% QoQ, through yields increased 12% Kato 4680 peak rate increased by 20%, through yields increased by 20% All together 25% reduction in COGs in quarter and on target for steady state cost targets over next year Steadily ramping production ahead of mass Cybertruck production next year Financials Expectations that all factories continue to improve all key metrics Still at max pain for commodities but starting to see a little bit of improvement here Lithium has dropped significantly and should result in a noticeable impact in Q2 / 2H 2023 Orders are in excess of production Cybertruck No details will be shared until Q3 delivery event “Incredible product” -Elon Musk Q & A from Financial Analysts Regional Exposure Many areas Tesla does not currently serve however there are plans to address this “High time Tesla offers its cars to the rest of the world” -Elon Musk FSD Elon declined comment on FSD take rate Current price is based on future value of having an autonomous vehicle Elon expects more “2 steps forward, 1 step back” with near future FSD updates “I think we’ll do it this year (regarding FSD)” -Elon Musk “Robotaxi” terminology is really a generic term for Tesla’s next-gen vehicle More details to come on this down the road “All of the vehicles that have HW3, which is vast majority of our fleet, will achieve full autonomy” -Elon Musk “Model 3 or Model Y will be a robotaxi, robotic taxi” -Elon Musk FSD has potential to create the largest value increase in history if it pans out General “We are in uncertain times” -Elon Musk Elon expects economical stormy weather for next 12 months and then assuming no geopolitical wild cards, things should heat up next spring Lithium bottleneck is more related to refining capacity vs mining capacity “Tesla will have the most lithium & cathode refining capacity in the world” -Elon Musk Elon mentioned they are doing this because they are forced to since others are not doing this About half of miss re: margin is attributed to pricing adjustments, other half related to things that are not reoccurring Elon believes no other company in the industry has more realtime data than Tesla and that allows them to quickly make intelligent decisions Tesla expects improved costs from suppliers but also reducing logistical overheads From a production perspective, they could possibly hit 2M but 1.8 remains their goal Tesla is not dropping prices in response to competition however Elon mentioned several times they could in fact sell cars for $0 profit however thanks to autonomy recoup margin later (a unique advantage for Tesla) Tesla is not trying to crush the competition and they gave an example of allowing 3rd party EVs to use the Supercharger network Tesla leadership does not see any limitations with direct sale model and is one of the fastest growing, complex product manufacturer ever Energy Should be closer to full production utilization in 2H 2023 Still a goal to develop heatpump for homes & commercial environments (on back burner for now) Tesla opened first Supercharger V4 location in Europe and first Magic Dock locations in NA in Q1 Key site layout & stall design will emphasize universal compatibility (no matter where the charge port is located) Going to continue to roll out these new offerings as they build new stations Always balancing servicing their own customers as well as non-Tesla EV customers Tesla has done a great job with this especially when you look how they’ve done in Europe

April 19, 2023 · 7 min · dburkland

Tesla FSD Beta 11.3 Video Series

Here is a complete list of all of my drive videos that I have recorded with FSD Beta 11.3.x: https://youtu.be/-5oQmRBqvMc Tesla - FSD Beta 11.3.6 - North Metro Test Loop (Zero Disengagements) This video contains footage recorded on April 10th, 2023 of FSD Beta 11.3.6 driving me from my home (NE Minneapolis) to my parents’ house (Coon Rapids, MN). Since the 37th Ave NE construction project started earlier this week, I adjusted the beginning of the route to navigate around this particular section of road. ...

March 9, 2023 · 18 min · dburkland
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How to Setup & Configure Teslascope

Through my involvement in the local Tesla Owners Club, one topic that continues to come up is vehicle data logging. If you perform a quick google search you will see that there are many Tesla-compatible data logging tools out there with the most popular being Teslascope, TeslaFi, TezLab, and the Stats App just to name a few. This blog post will focus on Teslascope not only because it is one of the more popular Tesla data logging solutions out there (10,000+ daily active users), but because they are the leader when it comes to constant feature updates and involvement with the broader Tesla community. ...

March 6, 2023 · 10 min · dburkland
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CVPR Keynote w/ Ashok Elluswamy - 2023-08-20

Back in August of last year Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Director of Autopilot Software, gave an in-depth presentation on Autopilot & FSD Beta. I found this presentation extremely informative and took some notes that I wanted to share with you all. You can find the full presentation here. Current hardware configuration 144 TOPS of compute onboard 360 FOV 36 FPS No radar or ultrasonics used in SW No HD maps “Classical” drivable space Image-space segmentation method, pretty standard in industry for mapping out drivable space Every pixel is mapped out whether it is drivable or not drivable, hope is the planning stack can use this information to map a route These predictions are in image space in UV values In order to navigate the world in 3D the car needs to have predictions in 3D space so it can build physical models of interaction and handle driving tasks Going from image space to 3D space when doing pixel segmentation can produce unnecessary artifacts or noise Few pixels at horizon can have huge influence depending on how Tesla transfers from image space to 3D space (cannot have this) Not a fundamental limitation this is just a limitation of this representation Does not provide full 3D structure of the scene, very much 2D Dense Depth A different way to model general obstacles is dense depth In this task you can make the network predict depth on a per pixel basis, every pixel produces a depth value Even though the depth maps look pretty when visualized in color space, the challenge comes when you use depth to un-project the rays into 3D points & visualize those 3D point clouds Close up they look fine and detailed however at distance they lack the appropriate detail resolution to make intelligent predictions Inconsistent results locally so walls for example wouldn’t be straight lines (curving, etc.) Things close to the horizon are represented by very points so creates challenge for planning stack when planning around obstacles Depth maps are produced on the image plane on a per camera basis which makes it challenging to produce a single, consistent 3D space around the car Since depth maps are typically modeled as regression targets it is hard to predict through occlusions and also at boundaries due to the properties of the networks can smoothly change (ex vehicle to the background) which creates unnecessary artifacts / noise in 3D space Occupancy Networks Image-space segmentation & dense depth maps are not sufficient for obstacle planning because 2D, do not work through occlusions, worse at distance Occupancy networks take in all the 8 camera streams of input and produces a single, consistent volumetric occupancy around the car Voxel - A point in 3D space Every voxel or location around car the network produces whether the voxel is occupied or not Produces a probability of the voxel being occupied or not Takes all 8 cameras and produces a single volumetric output, there is no stitching of independent predictions to produce this The networks do all the internal sensor fusion to produce the single consistent output space These networks produce both static occupancy (trees, walls, etc.) as well as dynamic occupancy (vehicles, debris, etc.) Since the output space is directly in 3D, we can predict things through occlusions (ex. presence of curb even when a car is in the way) This approach is extremely memory and compute efficient because it allocates resolution where it really matters Almost uniform resolution throughout the volume that is relevant for driving Runs in 10ms on current FSD hardware, runs at 100Hz which is much faster than what the cameras run at High level network architecture Images captured by camera are normalized Images are then fed into state of the art of image backbone architectures (Regnets & BiFPNs) to extract image features (can be swapped w/ state of the art architecture such as cbpr2022) These backbones now produce high dimensional features in image space We want occupancy to be in 3D so how is that done? Query-based attention to produce 3D occupancy features Queries 3D point for whether it is occupied or not Take 3D positional encoding then mapping into fixed queries which then attend to every image space feature Positional embedding in the image space so now these 3D queries attend to image space queries of all image streams Then produce 3D occupancy features Since these are high dimensional features it is hard to do this directly at every point in 3D space The workaround is to produce these high dimensional features at low resolution and use typical upscaling techniques like deconvolutions to efficiently produce denser high resolution occupancy Initially Tesla was only planning to use occupancy networks on static objects (walls, trees, etc.) They already had networks that handled moving objects These networks would then produce the kinematics of the vehicle such as depth, velocity, acceleration, jerk, etc. Turns out having a explicitly defined ontology (metaphysics dealing with the nature of being) tree can be pretty tricky to produce In the example above, a pickup truck that looks like a fence is easy to recognize when it is moving but when it is stopped it can result in the car getting confused (looks like a fence) This example is even trickier w/ pedestrians Impossible to fight so the solution to this problem is to produce both moving and static obstacles in the same framework, this way things can’t slip through the cracks between moving & stationary (there is no such things as stationary objects) Occupancy networks produce everything that’s occupied in the scene Instantaneous occupancy is not sufficient at speed especially when following a vehicle on highway, we don’t want to assume that occupied voxels are at 0 velocity and then just slow down because you want to slow down to avoid stationary obstacles, so we instead want to know future occupancy (how occupancy will change) ex. Allows us to know the vehicle ahead will move away by the time the ego vehicle reaches that location In addition to occupancy we predict occupancy flow Occupancy flow - Can be the first derivative of occupancy or time or can also high derivatives that can give more precise control To produce occupancy flow we take in multiple time steps as input so we take all the diff occupancy features from some buffer of time, align all them into a single coordinate frame, use same upsample techniques to produce both of the occupancy and occupancy flow Provides robust protection against all kinds of obstacles This knows there are moving things even if it doesn’t know what the obstacles are Provides nice protection against these kinds of classification dilemmas Regardless of what is occupying the volume space the car knows something is there and moving at a specific rate of speed Special vehicles can have strange protrusions that can be hard to model using traditional techniques Can also use geometric information to reason about occlusion Car is aware of occlusions and therefore can handle ways to remove occlusions and see past them (ex. creep forward) Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) Tesla team thinks of occupancy networks as extension of neural radiance fields Neural radiance fields - Try to reconstruct the scene from multi-view images Tesla can take a trip from any car in fleet to produce accurate camera courses across time and then run state of the art NeRF models to produce really good 3D reconstruction by differentiability rendering images from the 3D state Initial implementation from nerf paper used a single NN to represent full 3D scene More recently other works such as plano cells that use voxel-based representations to do this Also can extend to have both voxels of tiny MLPs or other continuous representation to interpolate the probability to produce these differentiability rendered images One problem with running NeRFs on raw images because of image artifacts High level descriptors can be used to combat things like glare because RGB can be extremely noisy Goal is to use this super vision for occupancy networks NeRFs can be used as a loss function to occupancy networks Full NeRF optimization cannot be run since occupancy networks need to produce occupancy in a few shots Can have a reduced NeRF optimization run in the car all the time in background making sure the occupancy that it produces is explaining all the sensor observation receives at runtime In addition it can be stacked on top at training time to produce good supervision for these networks Collision avoidance Autopilot saves humans from colliding like in the example above where the driver confused accelerator for brake and almost pinched his wife in between his car and another 40 accelerator misapplications saved every day Another example shown was a car nearly going into a river Another example shows the car stopping short of an old lady as the car was parking More collisions remain to be prevented like the one where somebody backed into their garage Driver was driving manually Driver unintentionally pressed accelerator to 100% First in forward direction, then in reverse AP saved the forward crash but wasn’t able to avoid the one in reverse For a self driving car to be useful, it needs to be: Safe Comfortable Reasonably fast Takes intelligence to drive in all 3 Green - Car is safe when put in this position Red - Car when put in configuration is on track for a collision Velocity and heading can be simulated to plan accordingly You need to predict many seconds before collision in order to properly react Not enough time to produce in real-time so in the car we instead approximate with NNs, recent advent of implicit fields we are able to tap into the same work to produce implicit fields that encode obstacle avoidance Take occupancy from previous networks, encode to super compressed MLP which is a implicit representation of whether a collision is avoidable or not from any particular query state Gives some guarantees for collision avoidance for some time horizon Example: Is a collision avoidable for 2 seconds or 4 seconds ? Collision avoidance will have ability to hit brakes and steer around potential obstacle / collision Doing natively would take a couple of minutes to come up with a solution “Doing collision avoidance using networks enables us to quickly query for whether a collision is avoidable or not and then take actions that prevent collisions from happening” Summary

March 2, 2023 · 9 min · dburkland