2021 Q4 Tesla Earnings Call Notes

I spent sometime listening to today’s earning call and have created raw some notes which I have included below for your reference. Enjoy!

  • Opening remarks from Elon
    • Above 50% growth expected in 2022
    • Overtime Tesla believes FSD to be most profitable offering from Tesla
    • Elon still believes they will achieve FSD at a level safer than a human being by end of 2022
    • Value of vehicles expected to dramatically rise more than any other product in history thanks to FSD
    • More products to be announced in subsequent calls
    • Scaling & output big focuses for Tesla in 2022
    • If Tesla were to introduce new vehicles they determined that overall output would decrease so 2022 was focused on supply chain optimization & production
    • No new vehicles will be introduced in 2022 as they will continue to be parts constrained
    • Optimus is new robot product and hope is to bring new vehicles and products to market in 2023
      • Dependent on if they can produce more or less cars
      • Robot has the potential to be more significant to be bigger than vehicle business over time
    • 4680s
      • Focus on production of 4680s
      • 4680s are not a constraint on volume plans for 2022
      • Plan is to deliver first 4680 vehicles in Q1
      • Big focus is to ramp production of 4680s and improve quality
    • Tesla expects to continue to be chip limited in 2022 and alleviate in 2023 and then Tesla expects to then be constrained by battery cell limitations
  • Q&A
    • $25k Car – Tesla is not currently working on this however it’s on the docket.
      • Elon thinks autonomy will be the big answer to transportation instead of a more affordable EV.
    • Home HVAC – Tesla views this as part of their mission and will address this problem someday.
      • Easier problem then to solve when HVAC system is in a house vs a vehicle (not space constrained)
      • Confident they can integrate this better than anybody else has before
    • FSD
      • Elon believes adding more licensing types for FSD is too complex and will instead focus on lowering costs for transportation overall
      • Expects big gains to be made with robotaxi in terms of value¬†
      • Some significant advancements in FSD stack coming in next few months
      • Elon will be shocked if they do not achieve FSD being safer than a human driver by the end of 2022
    • Dojo
      • Will be brought online this summer and then it will be a question of how long until it is more useful for training than a GPU cluster
      • Elon is waiting for GPU team to tell him Dojo is more powerful before shutting down GPU cluster
      • He expects Dojo to surpass GPU cluster power in 2023
      • Dojo is not required for FSD however it will be important in terms of cost optimization of training from video clips
    • Tesla Bot (Optimus)
      • Tesla expects first use of the bot will be in their factories, first with simple tasks like moving parts around
    • Tesla Insurance
      • Currently offered 5 states in the US
      • Pushing California hard to allow for informatics insurance
      • Based on Texas, Tesla Insurance has a high take rate and customers appreciate the feedback loop
      • As Teslas continues with their state-by-state rollout they plan to turn their focus to Europe in late 2022
    • CyberTruck
      • Not factory constrained to achieve CyberTruck volume production
      • Biggest issue is making CyberTruck affordable despite having awesome technology
      • Goal is still to achieve 250,000 units per year
    • Energy Storage
      • Elon believes all energy storage use cases will use non-nickel batteries go forward
      • Plan is to ramp however supply chain constraints are still top of mind and will limit growth in near term
    • Overall Production
      • Goal is to produce as many cars as possible and Tesla is confident they can hit their growth goals without introducing a $25k car at this time
      • 10,000 unique parts per car so it is important to continue to drive simplification to reduce possible supply chain constraints
    • Batteries
      • 4680 form factory is being worked on by both Tesla and their partners
      • Main focus is to drive down cost and increase efficiencies
      • Not everything has to be 4680 according to Drew
  • Links