I spent sometime listening to today’s earning call and have created raw some notes which I have included below for your reference. Enjoy!
- Opening remarks from Elon
- Above 50% growth expected in 2022
- Overtime Tesla believes FSD to be most profitable offering from Tesla
- Elon still believes they will achieve FSD at a level safer than a human being by end of 2022
- Value of vehicles expected to dramatically rise more than any other product in history thanks to FSD
- More products to be announced in subsequent calls
- Scaling & output big focuses for Tesla in 2022
- If Tesla were to introduce new vehicles they determined that overall output would decrease so 2022 was focused on supply chain optimization & production
- No new vehicles will be introduced in 2022 as they will continue to be parts constrained
- Optimus is new robot product and hope is to bring new vehicles and products to market in 2023
- Dependent on if they can produce more or less cars
- Robot has the potential to be more significant to be bigger than vehicle business over time
- 4680s
- Focus on production of 4680s
- 4680s are not a constraint on volume plans for 2022
- Plan is to deliver first 4680 vehicles in Q1
- Big focus is to ramp production of 4680s and improve quality
- Tesla expects to continue to be chip limited in 2022 and alleviate in 2023 and then Tesla expects to then be constrained by battery cell limitations
- Q&A
- $25k Car – Tesla is not currently working on this however it’s on the docket.
- Elon thinks autonomy will be the big answer to transportation instead of a more affordable EV.
- Home HVAC – Tesla views this as part of their mission and will address this problem someday.
- Easier problem then to solve when HVAC system is in a house vs a vehicle (not space constrained)
- Confident they can integrate this better than anybody else has before
- FSD
- Elon believes adding more licensing types for FSD is too complex and will instead focus on lowering costs for transportation overall
- Expects big gains to be made with robotaxi in terms of value
- Some significant advancements in FSD stack coming in next few months
- Elon will be shocked if they do not achieve FSD being safer than a human driver by the end of 2022
- Dojo
- Will be brought online this summer and then it will be a question of how long until it is more useful for training than a GPU cluster
- Elon is waiting for GPU team to tell him Dojo is more powerful before shutting down GPU cluster
- He expects Dojo to surpass GPU cluster power in 2023
- Dojo is not required for FSD however it will be important in terms of cost optimization of training from video clips
- Tesla Bot (Optimus)
- Tesla expects first use of the bot will be in their factories, first with simple tasks like moving parts around
- Tesla Insurance
- Currently offered 5 states in the US
- Pushing California hard to allow for informatics insurance
- Based on Texas, Tesla Insurance has a high take rate and customers appreciate the feedback loop
- As Teslas continues with their state-by-state rollout they plan to turn their focus to Europe in late 2022
- CyberTruck
- Not factory constrained to achieve CyberTruck volume production
- Biggest issue is making CyberTruck affordable despite having awesome technology
- Goal is still to achieve 250,000 units per year
- Energy Storage
- Elon believes all energy storage use cases will use non-nickel batteries go forward
- Plan is to ramp however supply chain constraints are still top of mind and will limit growth in near term
- Overall Production
- Goal is to produce as many cars as possible and Tesla is confident they can hit their growth goals without introducing a $25k car at this time
- 10,000 unique parts per car so it is important to continue to drive simplification to reduce possible supply chain constraints
- Batteries
- 4680 form factory is being worked on by both Tesla and their partners
- Main focus is to drive down cost and increase efficiencies
- Not everything has to be 4680 according to Drew
- $25k Car – Tesla is not currently working on this however it’s on the docket.
- Links