Attempting to achieve a 2M vehicle / year run rate by end of 2022
Tesla just recently produced their 3 millionth vehicle
Looking back 10 years ago, Tesla only made 2500 Roadsters and maybe a couple hundred Model S (August 2012)
“Cleanest exponentials” -Elon Musk
$TSLA shareholders have approved the 3-for-1 stock split
Important to note the increase in strong free cash flow is occurring before autonomy
“This year I swear” (FSD being released to public)
“Made some significant architectural improvements with FSD Beta 10.13 release, might qualify for 10.69” -Elon Musk
“It’s gotta earn that” -Elon Musk
“We are going to solve Chuck’s turn” -Elon Musk
“Roughly 90% success rate w/ Chuck’s turn”
“Might be next week” -Elon Musk
“It’s working well for me” -Elon Musk
FSD will save lives by driving an order of magnitudes safer than people
Tesla has the highest operating margin in the entire industry
Every time a competitor advertises for EVs Tesla notices an increase in sales
Model Y is tracking to be highest vehicle by revenue by end of 2022 and highest by unit by end of 2023
Tesla will soon be ready to announce another factory location by end of 2022
Tesla plans to eventually have 10-12 Giga Factories
Each factory will have the capacity to produce 1.5-2M vehicles per year
Fremont factory is highest output car factory in North America
Elon thinks it’s going to be a friendly competition between Berlin, Fremont, and Texas (Shanghai hard to beat)
Tesla has produced more energy than it consumes (includes vehicle charging)
Tesla battery recycling is already happening at a rate of 50 packs per week in Nevada
Continues to scale
Not that many batteries to recycle since their longevity has been really good so far (more of a longterm play)
Master Plan: Part 3
Will be focused on scaling
“What are all the things needed to achieve a fully sustainable global economy”
Cathode materials
Aluminum
Etc.
Goal is to reiterate this is absolutely doable and that we want it to be done as fast as possible
Vehicle Structure
Lighter
Stiffer
Better NVH
Better in pretty much every way when compared to stamped underbody construction
Manufacturing
Model Y requires only 30% of robots needed to produce vehicles as required by the Model 3
Improved layout of factory where it is now a signal monolithic factory
Eventually all cars will be self driving but it will be hard to replicate Tesla’s manufacturing capabilities
Working at Tesla
Employees are free to switch between SpaceX & Tesla
Factory safety has dramatically improved, Elon believes they now have the safest factories in the business
Tesla has encouraged employees to submit suggestions on improving factory safety with a goal of 3 suggestions per employee (They have since met that goal and safety has increased as a result)
3M job applicants over last year
Supercharger Network
99.96% uptime
Continue to deploy V3 Superchargers, V4 set to be deployed next year
Elon mentioned that more good news regarding the Supercharger network is coming
Safety
Tesla has a very detailed feedback loop when it comes to vehicle crashes
Auto seat belt tensioning is an example of how Tesla continues to improve safety via OTA updates
Activated via Autopilot AI when a crash is 99.99%+ sure to happen
FSD Beta
Tracking to well over 100M miles by end of 2022
Wide spread release by end of 2022, will be available to anybody who requests it
AI Day: Part 2
September 30th, 2022
Elon believes Optimus will turn the notion of what an economy is on its head
Next Decade
10 years ago they had less than 3000 cars, now its more than 3M
Elon thinks vehicle production should be able to exceed over 100M 10 years from now
Questions
Plans for Cash
Tesla has used a small amount of its available cash for acquisitions and that will continue to be the case unless the right opportunity arrises (automation, software, manufacturing, etc.)
Spending CapEx and R&D money as fast as they can without wasting it
Share buyback may be in the cards as long as there isn’t another force majeure event
Factories
12 factories seems to be the perfect number with a maximum production rate of 2M vehicles per factory
CyberTruck
Specs and pricing will be different (a lot has changed since 2019)
Inflation and various issues are to blame
Production equipment & tooling will begin getting installed in Giga Texas, volume production still targeted by mid-2023
US & China Tension
Elon hopes for peace and respect between the US & China
Supercharger Locations
Permits are extremely hard to obtain in some areas (ex. Malibu)
Tesla continues to prioritize new Supercharger locations by busiest locations
Elon mentioned there will be an online poll where people can vote where they want new Supercharger locations built
Trying to do more fun things when it comes to Supercharger locations (ex. Futuristic Diner in Hollywood)
4680 Output
Tesla is making a decent number of 4680 cells each week and Elon projects that they’ll be in high volume production by end of 2022
4680 production does not yet impact vehicle output however it will in 2023
Master Plan
New master plan not yet ready, plan to finish it by end of August 2022
Supply Chain
Most of commodities that go into Tesla vehicles are trending down (cost) over next 6 months which suggests that we are past peak inflation
Elon thinks we will have a relatively mild recession for 18 months (just a guess) and that inflation should drop rapidly
Autonomy
AI is going to increase utility of passenger vehicles by 4-5x
Vehicles will still cost the same to produce so gross margins are expected to rapidly increase
Elon still believes folks will have the option to own a car, rent it out when they aren’t using it, or simply rent somebody else’s vehicle (ex. Uber)
“Optimus will bring the future to now”
Media
Elon annoyed that most analysts don’t drive Teslas which prevents them from having a good understanding of the Tesla customer experience
Succession
Elon believes in strong product roadmap that will lead to success for quite some time
Elon intends to stay with Tesla as long as he is useful, plans to continue to closely focus on factory & product d
esign
Tesla would continue to do well even if he was kidnapped by aliens (or returned to his own planet haha)
The only publicly traded securities Elon owns are $TSLA and $TWTR
Believes he has a good sense of where to point the engineering team at $TWTR to make it radically better
Thinks Twitter would accelerate his original vision of x.com by 3-5 years and be something that is very useful to the world
Tunnels
Elon wanted to clarify he is pro-train
Elon believes tunnels could solve virtually any traffic problems around the world and allow above ground road space to be reclaimed for parks
Dojo & Tesla Communicating w/ Each Other
Goal #1 is to be really good at video training
Approaching at being the 3rd most powerful super computer in the world (geared for AI training)
Fundamentally focused on NN training which has never been done before
Some merit with Teslas communicating with each other but not needed for FSD (traffic, accidents, pot holes, etc.)
