Tesla - FSD Beta 10.69.1 - Roundabout - Wide Unmarked Road Torture Test

Tesla FSD Beta 10.69.1 Video Series

Earlier this week I received Tesla FSD Beta 10.69.1 and was able to perform a bunch of testing where I recognized some big improvements as well some as some new issues & regressions. What a blast, can’t wait to test 10.69.1.1 as well as 10.69.2! https://youtu.be/zSHVlkdg_1o Episode #1 - Tesla - FSD Beta 10.69.1 - Home to Work This video contains footage recorded on the morning of August 31st, 2022 of FSD Beta 10.69.1 driving me from my home (NE Minneapolis) to my company’s office (Edina, MN). Aside from the disengagement at the beginning of the video, we enjoy one of the smoothest rides to date w/ FSD Beta thanks to the many enhancements included with 10.69.1. Along the way we also confirm that a long-standing lane selection issue at the intersection of 37th Ave NE & Central Ave NE has been resolved. I am beyond excited because this issue has plagued each of the previous FSD Beta 10.x builds and has always resulted in a disengagement each & every the intersection came up. Shoutout to the Autopilot team for their continued focus and hard work on FSD Beta, it is great to see the improvements with each build first hand! ...

September 3, 2022 · 5 min · dburkland
press_releases

2022 Tesla Annual Meeting of Stockholders

Part 1 - Formal Shareholder Items Martin - Intro Robyn Denholm Global fleet of cars and vehicles to avoid 8.4M metric tons of green house gas emissions Avoided emissions that were equivalent to ICE vehicles driving 20B miles By 2030 Tesla plans to sell 20M vehicles / year In June 2022 Tesla achieved the highest vehicle production month in their history Tesla continues to make an impact w/ Solar & Energy Storage business Tesla sold 4 GWH of energy storage products in 2021, enough to power 3M homes Solar demand has increased 4x Goal is for all factories to be carbon neutral Tesla already uses less water per vehicle than any other automaker Sustainability drives everything Tesla does Stockholder Proposals Proxy Statement: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459022024064/tsla-def14a_20220804.htm Part 2 - Elon’s Presentation / Q & A Session ...

August 5, 2022 · 7 min · dburkland
TjgFzu-tsla-q2-22-update

2022 Tesla Q2 Earnings Call Notes

Today I had a chance to listen to the 2022 Q2 Tesla earnings call and as a result have produced the following raw notes. Enjoy! Opening remarks from Elon Musk Unique quarter for Tesla due to Shanghai shutdown Production records achieved in Fremont & Shanghai Set up nicely for record breaking 2nd half of 2022 Past years have thrown several force majeure at Tesla yet the team continues to overcome Giga Berlin Production Ramp continues with 1000 cars / week in June, Giga Austin to follow with the same number in the next few months Still making cars w/ 2170 cells in parallel and important to note they aren’t dependent on 4680s and will still hit their production numbers FSD Beta deployed to over 100,000 owners 5-6 years ago they set out to be the best manufacturer in the world Pro-manufacturing mindset has given them a competitive edge Currently make the largest castings in the world As a result of improved manufacturing processes in Berlin & Texas, Tesla has reduced body welding robot count by 70% per unit of capacity Body shop is roughly 3x smaller as it would be otherwise New vehicle bodies are lighter, cheaper, and quieter thanks to reduction in NVH Another level of simplicity and improvements are coming with Cybertruck (as well as future products coming down the road) Intelligent seat belt tensioning based on vision system recently released, first in the industry to do this Can also adjust the airbag deployment as well Delivered via OTA update Will have profound impact on passenger safety Compatible for all HW3-equipped Teslas Cybertruck Production still expected to start middle of 2023 “Best product ever” -Elon FSD Beta Planned to be released to all North American customers by end of 2022 FSD will then be released to other geos such as Asia and EU soon after pending regulatory approval Opening remarks from Zach Kirkhorn Made substantial progress in almost every area of the business New production records reached in existing factories and new ones actively ramping Highest solar production volumes in years Temporary shutdown had noticeable impact to vehicle margin Factory ramping also associated with negative impact on vehicle margin Inflation, commodities, and logistics continue to be headwinds Resource constrained on Powerwall and Megapack which should be resolved in the 2nd half of 2022 Austin & Berlin operating costs are going down as production ramps up Tesla sold 75% of Bitcoin holdings They did so as they were uncertain when COVID lockdowns in China would end As a result they wanted to maximize cash position They are still interested in Bitcoin and have not yet sold any Dogecoin Highest operating margins ever at 14.6% Still targeting 50% of growth and still within reach Q&A Chinese EV Manufacturers & Software Innovation Elon believes Tesla China is the best EV manufacturer in China Chinese car companies will be a force to be reckoned with going forward Tesla has respect for Chinese automakers but believes they have whats necessary to compete Unified Vector Space Unified Vector Space would be if instead of knitting together dynamic & static objects w/ C++ you knit them together at the NN level (meaning you no longer need to reconcile them in C++ heuristics) Architecturally better way Slight improvement in efficiency of FSD stack and something they want to get to Nirvana situation would be to have surround video auto labeling for all static & dynamic objects as well as surround video inference w/ spacial memory Elon believes they have a unified vector space by the end of 2022 Elon is also very confident that Tesla will improve the frame rate as they delete legacy NNs and further optimize the FSD software stack The goal is to get FSD Beta to operate at 36fps for all 8 cameras compared to the current 24 frames which will reduce latency when reacting to a dynamic environment Inflation & Future Price Reductions They do not control so therefore Elon says take w/ grain salt but thinks inflation to decrease by end of 2022 Carbon, steel, aluminum, etc are trending down in cost which should see impact later in 2022, early 2023 Processing of lithium is insanely costly Elon again encouraging entrepreneurs to enter the lithium business as there are, “software margins” “License to print money” -Elon Bitcoin Cryptocurrency is not something Tesla thinks about a lot according to Elon Main goal is production and addressing climate change by making sustainable energy & transport a reality 4680s Structural pack is a monumental step forward from a physics perspective and is the way to go Gained perspective through entering production w/ structural pack Teslas which proved their hypotheses Cost improvements are thanks to solving technical issues and scale They have saved 4-5kg in mass from the early cast Model Y underbodies since their initial production Plan is to reduce mass of castings and to include more parts (and to adapt vehicle to work better with castings) Cybertruck will be another big step in this area Making progress on 4680 production ramp but continuing to leverage supplier cells (2170s) to ramp Giga Berlin & Texas Total production ramp of 4680 packs to 1000 per week by end of the year (preferably earlier) Q2 @ Kato fully automated powder conveyance for the dry anode electrode tool there unlocking major improvements in production & yields too Production as a result has increased 35% MoM since March and yields throughout factory are already at targets or trending towards them Took learnings from Fremont cell & pack lines and built optimized lines in Giga Berlin & Texas Cell design was revved to unlock higher performance and manufacturing simplicity Lines were fully integrated and insourced additional content As a result new challenges for ramping in Giga Berlin & Texas Last quarter cell equipment was fully installed at Giga Texas and they have since produced their first commissioning car sets of 4680s cells The target for Texas is to begin mass producing 4680 cells in Q3 2022 with the goal of being able to exceed the weekly cell production capacity of the Kato battery plant by end of 2022 Priority with 4680s initially is simplicity and scale, Tesla was not aiming to include all of the bells & whistles right off the bat As manufacturing goals are achieved they plan to layer in new material technologies into their structural packs (and increase range as well) Currently in regards to 4680s Tesla’s main focus is to remove low hanging issues that would prevent further production ramp Dry electrode anode & cathode are included in the current 4680 process which makes things harder to ramp (yet they continue to achieve success here) Once mass production achieved they plan to quickly iterate w/ an increase in energy density and overall performance soon thereafter Tesla cell production will continue to compliment production volumes from suppliers Fundamental rate limiter for transition to sustainable energy is rate of li-ion battery pack production Not due to scarcity of raw materials, refining lithium in ultra high purity is quite difficult and requires massive amounts of machinery Super difficult to create anode and cathode Elon believes 2/3 of batteries in the future will be iron phosphate, maybe some with manganese Tesla is actively working with suppliers to ramp as quick as possible Tesla is taking action by building their own Cathode plant at Giga Te xas as well as taking the plunge into lithium refinement FSD Development Progress & Andrej Departure While Andrej Karpathy will be missed (recent departure), Elon remains very bullish on current team of 120 people in software / AI group and believes that they will solve FSD by end of 2022 No major setbacks or delays in FSD timeline should occur as a result of Andrej’s departure Elon believes they will raise FSD price just before they go to wide beta (targeted for end of 2022) Value of FSD is extremely high and not well understood by most people, Elon thinks its ridiculously cheap if promises of performance materialize Semiconductor Supply Chain Constraints Tesla procures about 1600 unique pieces of silicon from 43 different companies Supply chains are more stable w/ latest generation of chips Chips from the analog & mixed signaling space still remain a challenge from a supply chain perspective Supply chain line of sight continues to match planned outputs for both factories (no constraints) Long term contracts already in place for key battery materials and so there are no concerns about future constraints Tesla does not plan to manufacture their own chips however they continue to work with suppliers to ensure future product goals are achieved Chip shortage forced Teslas to delete redundant chips and update software accordingly (big positive in hindsight) Cybertruck Deliveries to begin by the middle of 2023 Vehicle Demand Vehicle demand not an issue for Tesla for the foreseeable future No sizable macro impact on demand Difference between value in money and affordability and why you can’t just keep increasing prices Elon feels that they have raised prices to “frankly embarrassing levels” Supply chain and inflation are main culprits for price increases Elon is hopeful Tesla can reduce prices soon Elon thinks its achievable to produce 40,000 vehicles per week by end of 2022 Teslas has already produced 30,000 vehicles per week many times, 40,000 vehicles per week is definitely in reach Plan is to get Giga Berlin & Texas to ramp to 5,000 vehicles per week by end of 2022 and 10,000 vehicles per week by end of 2023 Elon reaffirms that Tesla does not have a demand problem but instead a production problem Elon’s Role At Tesla If there is only good news Elon won’t plan to join the future earnings calls Elon is committed to working at Tesla as long as he can continue to help advance the company AI Elon didn’t want to steal thunder from AI day so he will save the news / updates regarding Dojo & Optimus for then

July 20, 2022 · 8 min · dburkland
desktop_ir_hero

2022 Tesla Q1 Earnings Call Notes

I spent sometime listening to the 2022 Q1 Tesla earnings call and have created raw some notes which I have included below for your reference. Enjoy! Opening remarks from Zach Kirkhorn Per unit vehicle costs increased due to inflation, raw material costs, and supply chain constraints Slight shift towards more profitable vehicles like the Model Y Energy business continues to be impacted by macro conditions more than vehicle business (chip constraints) Achieved record operating margin over 19% amidst construction of 2 new factories (Giga Berlin & Giga Texas) Tesla has reduced debt (excluding product debt) to nearly 0 Lost 1 month of build volume lost due to COVID-related shutdowns at Giga Shanghai (will dramatically affect Q2 delivery numbers) Inefficiencies of ramping process at Giga Berlin & Texas will affect bottom line Tesla still believes 50% YoY growth w/ vehicle production in 2022 is still achievable Opening remarks from Elon Musk Record deliveries and production even with many headwinds Even with COVID shutdowns in Giga Shanghai Elon believes they still have a shot at 60% YoY growth for 2022 Two new factories opened in Q1 and exponentially ramping (Giga Berlin & Giga Texas) with higher production volumes achievable by end of this year Just crossed 1m units in the last year however long way to go as Tesla aspires to produce 20m units per year (only 5% towards their goal) Elon never more excited for Tesla and their future then he is now Robotaxi Highly optimized for autonomy (no steering wheel or pedals) Numerous other innovations Fundamentally optimized for lowest fully considered cost per mile, accounting for everything (very powerful product) Expect to reach volume production of Robotaxi in 2024 CyberTruck On track for volume production in 2023 Optimus Elon surprised people weren’t more excited for this but he thinks folks will fully understand its capabilities & impact will be greater than FSD or vehicle businesses Energy Battery & solar production will improve as supply chain issues are resolved Q&A FSD Development Progress Elon has never seen more false dawns than with the development of FSD. Real world AI has to be solved for (nobody has solved yet) and with our roads designed for humans, NNs & cameras have to be solved in a way that is on-par with (and exceeds) the capabilities of humans. Elon still believes they will deliver on FSD in 2022. Best way to realize this is participate in FSD beta program and experience it for ourselves as they’ll be expanding the program later this year. Still targeting new FSD release cadence of every 2 weeks. Giga Shanghai Shutdown Production is coming back with a vengeance and Elon expects weekly production records to be broken as they work to catch up. Still possible to match / exceed Q1 numbers however Q3 & Q4 are expected to be record quarters in terms of production. Elon believes Tesla will easily be able to produce 1.5m vehicles this year. It’s important for new factories to target limited configurations during ramp and that is why both Giga Berlin & Giga Texas are hyper-focused on producing the Model Y. Ramp period (5k per week) takes typically 9-12 months from start of production however it’s possible for Tesla to ramp sooner based on their experience. Price Increase Elon says it is understandable that there are many folks questioning price increases especially amidst record profitability however the price increases are there to account for an increase in raw materials costs and potential supply chain constraints in the future (since vehicle deliveries are a year out). State-based Dealership Laws Tesla would love federal-based laws that allows direct sales across the country however congress is not willing to take up this sort of legislation at this time (so Tesla is approaching it on a state-by-state basis) 800V Battery Architecture Tesla is not ignoring the reality that they can go to a higher voltage however there is not any compelling reason to change at this point Going from 400V to 800V might save them $100 per vehicle (however requires changing all of the backend infrastructure) Switching to 800V might make sense down the road however Tesla needs to increase vehicle volume to absorb the cost of moving from 400V to 800V first For larger vehicles where higher power on the battery side and/or charging side is required (where current requirements go up), savings can be seen by increasing voltage as it would reduce semiconductor needs (and thus save $) Tesla is considering different voltages for CyberTruck and Semi For 3, Y, and Robotaxi they see no need to switch 4680 Batteries Tesla is working in all areas that they described during the battery day event and making good progress Going to take several years to achieve the cost savings and performance numbers they described during battery day 4680 structural pack will be competitive with the best alternatives later this year and exceed the best alternatives next year New chemistries hinted at however will be included in 4680 production later on Based on Giga Texas factory construction, the 4680 production equipment cost 5x less than what it would have been with other battery cell designs Cost model well understood, rate and yield will be better understood as they ramp over next few years Giga Berlin will transition to 4680s from 2170s later this year Giga Texas has the capability to produce non-structural pack for 2170s (mitigation) Volume production for 4680s in Giga Texas targeted by end of Q3, for sure Q4 Sizable cell inventory thanks to Giga Shanghai shutdown and allows them to be more deliberate in 4680 development (gives them some breathing room during ramp) 4680 production not a risk to achieving vehicle production target in 2022 however would be in 2023 Raw Materials Required To Scale Tesla needs to think about tonnage of Nickel, Iron Phosphate, Graphite, Separators, Electrolytes for the world as a whole Then take action on limiting factors that get in the way of the advent of a sustainable energy future Tesla is thinking about mining & refining Lithium is a current limiting factor and responsible for cost growth per cell as of late (single biggest on a percentage basis) Lithium only makes up only 2-3% of a Li-Ion cell (5kg per car) Cathode (Nickel & Iron Phosphate) is the heaviest in terms of cost and raw materials composition of a battery cell Exciting announcements on the raw materials topic in the months to come, Elon hinted to a follow up call / event Tesla committed to recycling at all cell factories, recycling 50T per week in Reno (ramping to 150T) which is putting materials right back into their Cathode supply chain As they are building new vehicles at new factories, Tesla is recycling everything they can from a raw materials perspective Tesla figured out they can recycle cast aluminum wheels from retired ICE cars and throw it into their aluminum melting pot and use for vehicle body production for 3 & Y Half of Tesla’s products were LFP-based in Q1 2022 which shows how nimble they are regarding battery chemistry Also looking at other cathode options to give Tesla further agility Some of the challenges with Lithium market are not related to supply & demand fundamentals (frustrating to Tesla) Giga Berlin & Texas Ramping related to Giga Shanghai Elon thinks they need to ramp Berlin & Texas faster than Shanghai as they are more experienced now and have learned so much in the simplification of Model Y production Body line for front & rear cast underbody + structural pack is 60% smaller than it would be otherwise in terms of equipment required If you are waiting for the best Tesla ever you will be waiting forever as they are constantly improving Robotaxi Unveiling event sometime next year, Elon doesn’t want to go into too many details until then Volume production in 2024 Sizable investment required to build robotaxi production lines Prices Over Time Elon wants to make EVs as affordable as possible however this has become very difficult due to inflation (40-50yr high) Likely to continue for remainder of 2022 Long term contracts with suppliers have helped Tesla keep costs down longer than expected but eventually they run out 20-30% cost increase from suppliers over last year which is why Tesla has raised their prices Lithium margins are practically software margins right now (Elon encouraging more to get into this business) CyberTruck Ignoring battery cells Tesla believes the CyberTruck is made of 20-30% less parts than a typical pickup truck Giga Nevada Room for expansion there and the plan is to expand production at Giga Nevada further Majority of battery cells will be produced at Giga Texas going forward COVID Shutdowns in China Elon doesn’t think recent COVID shutdowns in China will negatively impact production elsewhere Elon compensation No plans or talks to increase Elon’s compensation further 3rd Party Access to Supercharger Network in USA Tesla plans to provide 3rd party vehicle access to the entire world and remains committed to that Tesla is pursuing a technical solution to address the difference in charging connector in the US (magic dock) Growth of Supercharger network is being accelerated to match increase in vehicle production Tesla Insurance In state of Texas Tesla is the second largest insurer of Teslas and should be #1 in the next quarter Working to get 80% of states access to Tesla insurance by end of year at which point they’ll look to expand to other markets Having realtime feedback for driving habits (safety score program) is proving helpful to Tesla owners w/ Tesla insurance as it directly relates to a lower rate When a crash happens it gives Tesla a new feedback loop to improve vehicle design, reduce costs, etc (End-to-end visibility)

April 20, 2022 · 8 min · dburkland

tesLAX Bill of Materials

Intro Thanks to TeslaOwnersOnline.com, I became aware of the CANserver project started by Josh Wardell which created a device that allows you to connect to a vehicle’s CAN network. Once connected, you then have the ability to transmit live data to a microDisplay or app as well as log messages to an SD card. What makes this project special is that both the hardware & software were built from the ground up to deliver an upgradeable yet feature rich solution that you cannot find anywhere else on the market. Based on my personal experience, the stability of the solution is far superior to other OBD adapters where I was constantly plagued with hard resets due to constant freezing (ex. OBDlink+). In researching the CANserver project I also came across a fantastic iOS app by the name of tesLAX which is a CANBus Explorer and visualization tool. In order to get all of these components to work with your Tesla, I have put together an example bill of materials below. ...

March 14, 2022 · 4 min · dburkland

2021 Q4 Tesla Earnings Call Notes

I spent sometime listening to today’s earning call and have created raw some notes which I have included below for your reference. Enjoy! Opening remarks from Elon Above 50% growth expected in 2022 Overtime Tesla believes FSD to be most profitable offering from Tesla Elon still believes they will achieve FSD at a level safer than a human being by end of 2022 Value of vehicles expected to dramatically rise more than any other product in history thanks to FSD More products to be announced in subsequent calls Scaling & output big focuses for Tesla in 2022 If Tesla were to introduce new vehicles they determined that overall output would decrease so 2022 was focused on supply chain optimization & production No new vehicles will be introduced in 2022 as they will continue to be parts constrained Optimus is new robot product and hope is to bring new vehicles and products to market in 2023 Dependent on if they can produce more or less cars Robot has the potential to be more significant to be bigger than vehicle business over time 4680s Focus on production of 4680s 4680s are not a constraint on volume plans for 2022 Plan is to deliver first 4680 vehicles in Q1 Big focus is to ramp production of 4680s and improve quality Tesla expects to continue to be chip limited in 2022 and alleviate in 2023 and then Tesla expects to then be constrained by battery cell limitations Q&A $25k Car - Tesla is not currently working on this however it’s on the docket. Elon thinks autonomy will be the big answer to transportation instead of a more affordable EV. Home HVAC - Tesla views this as part of their mission and will address this problem someday. Easier problem then to solve when HVAC system is in a house vs a vehicle (not space constrained) Confident they can integrate this better than anybody else has before FSD Elon believes adding more licensing types for FSD is too complex and will instead focus on lowering costs for transportation overall Expects big gains to be made with robotaxi in terms of value Some significant advancements in FSD stack coming in next few months Elon will be shocked if they do not achieve FSD being safer than a human driver by the end of 2022 Dojo Will be brought online this summer and then it will be a question of how long until it is more useful for training than a GPU cluster Elon is waiting for GPU team to tell him Dojo is more powerful before shutting down GPU cluster He expects Dojo to surpass GPU cluster power in 2023 Dojo is not required for FSD however it will be important in terms of cost optimization of training from video clips Tesla Bot (Optimus) Tesla expects first use of the bot will be in their factories, first with simple tasks like moving parts around Tesla Insurance Currently offered 5 states in the US Pushing California hard to allow for informatics insurance Based on Texas, Tesla Insurance has a high take rate and customers appreciate the feedback loop As Teslas continues with their state-by-state rollout they plan to turn their focus to Europe in late 2022 CyberTruck Not factory constrained to achieve CyberTruck volume production Biggest issue is making CyberTruck affordable despite having awesome technology Goal is still to achieve 250,000 units per year Energy Storage Elon believes all energy storage use cases will use non-nickel batteries go forward Plan is to ramp however supply chain constraints are still top of mind and will limit growth in near term Overall Production Goal is to produce as many cars as possible and Tesla is confident they can hit their growth goals without introducing a $25k car at this time 10,000 unique parts per car so it is important to continue to drive simplification to reduce possible supply chain constraints Batteries 4680 form factory is being worked on by both Tesla and their partners Main focus is to drive down cost and increase efficiencies Not everything has to be 4680 according to Drew Links Tesla Q4 2021 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast Tesla Q4 2021 Shareholder Deck

January 26, 2022 · 4 min · dburkland
IMG_1497_orig copy

Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta Secured

Intro On October 11th, 2021, 1000 US-based Tesla owners including myself were granted access to Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta. This group of Tesla owners were selected based on their Tesla Safety Score (had to initially be 100) which was calculated based on the following safety factors: If you would like to learn more, Tesla published a great read up on how each of these safety factors are computed here. If you are a Tesla owner and would like to know how many miles you would need to drive with a perfect score in order to improve your overall score, check out the safety score spreadsheet here. ...

October 23, 2021 · 28 min · dburkland
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Model S Plaid Delivery Event - 2021-06-10

Tesla held a short but sweet event today where they went into a bit more detail regarding the Model S Plaid. I took some rough notes that I have included below. 9 years since Tesla delivered the first Model S One of the motivating factors behind Plaid Model S was to show EVs can be the best cars out there (safest, fastest, etc) No car up until the Plaid Model S has broken the 2 second 0-60 barrier Specs 420 miles of range give or take🙂 187 miles of range in 15 minutes thanks to updated V3 Supercharging speeds 1.99s 0-60 9.23s 1/4 mile 200 mph top speed 1,020 hp peak power 390 miles of range All new battery pack Carbon-sleeved rotors for the drive units 1st time this has been done Had to design the machine to do the winding Carbon overwrap holds the rotor together because of the high RPMs Up to 20k RPMs, maybe a little more Lowest drag coefficient of any car ever made at 0.208 Important to note that this was achieved with wheels in motion Heat pump & improved thermals 30% better at colder range 50% better range in freezing conditions Radiator is twice as big for heat ejection Back to back 0-60s and the car will not get winded Nurburgring return teased In 2012 there were 0 superchargers, now there is 25k superchargers (30 in last week) Engineered for 5-star Safety Tesla believes the refreshed Model S will have the lowest probability of injury ever tested (Tesla already has the top 5 in this category) Ventilated front seats Yoke steering wheel optimized for autopilot, better visibility Auto shifting will remember overrides by geolocation so you don’t have to keep overriding it Tesla was able to move the front seats more forward allowing for more room in the back seats 36W USB-C for charging phones Allows for multiple Bluetooth devices to be paired at a given time allowing multiple people to play music via their phones Hidden air vents, invisible AC Tri-zone (left front, right front, rear) 2200x1300 resolution on the front 17” display All new sound system developed by Tesla Audio, acoustic glass used to make it the quietest Tesla yet 920 watts Adapts based on input source Software-defined that will get better with time All new UI with V11 Waypoints coming according to Tesla (“God damnit” :)) Interfaces with calendar so if you just swipe down in navigate it’ll automatically figure it out Allows for various apps and icons to be moved & placed as needed PS5-level performance thanks to AMD SoC Capable of playing CyberPunk First deliveries happen today Awesome power curve thanks to new drivetrain

June 11, 2021 · 3 min · dburkland
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2021 Q1 Tesla Earnings Call Notes

I spent sometime listening to today’s earning call and have created raw some notes which I have included below for your reference. Enjoy! Opening Remarks from Elon Record quarter on many levels Record production, deliveries and surpassed $1B in non-GAAP income Demand is the best they have ever seen Used to seeing a reduction in Q1 and this year it was the opposite Model 3 became best selling mid-sized, premium sedan of any kind in the world (used to be BMW M3) Elon predicts Model Y will be best selling vehicle of any kind in the world in CY2022 FSD continues to make great progress even though its one of the hardest technical problems ever to solve With the elimination of radar, Tesla is getting rid of the last crutches When computer vision works, it works better than the best human Elon is highly confident they will FSD this done Q1 was one of the most difficult times in terms of supply chain constraints for Tesla China growth was restricted by COVID-related personnel restrictions which made them 100% reliant on drive unit production at Giga Nevada More challenges than expected in developing the refreshed Model S & X Battery was one of the biggest challenges as most energy they have ever packed in such a footprint They have iterated on the Model S test units they have built and should begin deliveries in Q2 and ramping in Q3 Goal is to produce 2000 Model S & X per week with 2400 - 2500 being peak production target Expect to have limited in production later this year and volume production in CY2022 at Giga Berlin & Texas Model Y continues to ramp in Fremont & Giga Shanghai Semi & Roadster development continues to ramp Financials Successfully launched and ramped Model Y in China (while retaining profitable) Reduction in S & X deliveries were meaningful headwinds to profits Continuing to work through supply chain issues however still experienced higher expedite costs Cost structure is reducing and thus leading to future gains in profitability Energy growth margins remained negative due to winter seasonality and solar roof ramping Remain on track for industry leading ASPs and operating margins Making progress on reducing varying forms of debt Trimmed BTC investment by 10% which resulted in a $127M profit Global demand remains meaningfully higher than production levels so still trying to ramp production rates Q2 & Q3 will hinge on S & X, Model Y in Shanghai, and cost reduction in these programs Cash generation should respond positively Questions from Say Question: How is Dojo coming along? Will Tesla become the AWS of the AI / robotics world with Dojo? Answer: Long term Elon believes Tesla will be thought of as a AI / robotics company as much as a car & energy company. Training system will need to be able to address data produced by a fleet greater than 2M cars in 2022. Surround video labeling is quite tricking as you are looking at quite a bit of data when you consider 30 fps x 6 cameras over time. No tool that existed and Tesla created their own labeling tool to address this. Holy grail is auto labeling which Tesla is getting quite good. Dojo is really a supercomputer optimized for Neural Net (NN) training. Tesla believes an order of magnitude cost efficient per frame of video in terms of hardware & power compared to a GPU solution. Tesla plans to eventually make it available for public consumption. Question: Could Tesla share more about Solar Roof challenges and if the outcome has changed at all from 1000 roofs per week? Answer: Elon mentioned demand still exceeds production & ability to install. He admits to underestimating roof construction variance which has presented install challenges. Tesla is shifting whole solar + battery situation to only 1 configuration where every house with solar will include at least 1 Powerwall. Powerwall 2+ (+ refers to 2x higher peak power output) which started production in September of 2020. Difficulty of installation will be much less due to the way they are wiring the Solar always to the Powerwall, and Powerwall in between utility and house. You never need to touch the circuit breakers of the house as a result become your own utility. In working with the utilities, Tesla can harness the Powerwalls to stabilize the overall grid and address situations like what happened in Texas. They can then operate as if they are a decentralized utility. With the ramp of EVs, Tesla estimates we will need 2x if all transportation goes electric and 3x if all heating goes electric as well (along with ever changing weather patterns). Question: Master of coin, can you tell us Tesla’s future plans in crypto currency. Answer: Zach responded saying BTC investment was based on desire to leverage cash that is sitting idle and get a return on it. Tesla does believe long term in BTC stability and is committed to holding its position long term. There is some additional plans related to crypto being worked on but no announcements as of yet. Question: Does Tesla have any plans to deal with the current fud campaign being amplified by the media? Answer: Elon mentioned how journalists should be ashamed for their deceptive ways in how they covered the Texas crash story. Tesla is continuing to work alongside crash investigation agencies and help them where needed. Autosteer would not and could not engage as designed. TACC only engaged after driver was in seat, seat belt buckled, and vehicle going 5mph. The car only accelerated to 30mph with TACC which was not the final speed when the vehicle crashed (it was much higher). Through further investigation Tesla was able to determine driver was in the seat at time of crash due to the steering wheel being deformed (amongst other evidence). NTSB is still investigating and we will wait for their report. Question: What is Teslas response to seasonal energy storage? Answer: US could be powered off a single 100mi x 100mi solar array, 200MW per KM^2. Entirely possible with using only a small percentage of earth’s area. Elon believes you do not need room temperature super conductors. Low cost, long distance, high-voltage DC powerlines are key. Technologies that exist today can easily solve earth’s energy problems. Tesla believes there should be a carbon tax on energy production just like a cigarette or alcohol tax. No question in Elon’s mind that Li-Ion batteries can solve world’s energy needs when it comes to sustainable energy. Iron-based Li-Ion batteries will become a key player in energy storage use cases due to its cost and stability. Question: Where does Berlin sit relative to the 5-10x production improvement that Tesla achieved with the Model 3? Answer: Truly profound that Tesla was the first American car company in 100 years to reach volume production. Tesla has numerous stories where insignificant components restricted production (USB cables being one of them). Question: High volume transport-related question? Answer: No answer at this time. Questions from Institutional Investors Question: Looking for an update to progress since battery day. Answer: Tesla has made quite a bit of 4680 cells however not quite reliable enough to ship in cars (but getting close). Most of equipment already ordered for battery production in Giga Austin & Berlin. Overall very optimistic in achieving volume production of 4680 cells in CY2022. Progress in yields is really strong and current trajectory aligns with cost production. While they are ramping up their battery manufacturing capabilities, they are working with suppliers to help supplement overall battery production (LG & Panasonic). Aiming for comparable margins in energy storage just like vehicles, already off to a great start with Powerwall however more room to go with Megapack (runway to improve this going forward). Question: L ooking for an update on rollout of FSD V9 and plans regarding a subscription model. Answer: Currently working on FSD subscriptions and hope to roll out soon. OpEx costs will be reduced with completion of industry first projects like 4680 battery cells. On the SG&A side, business is pivoting to being global. China is continuing to ramp quickly and Tesla is trying to stay ahead of the volume to manage growth. Question: What is the path to reduce COGs on powertrain to do something like a $25k vehicle? Interested to learn about new efficiencies in new factories and how does that relates to new COGs. Answer: Plenty of opportunities to improve COGs in terms of battery production, materials, etc. Tesla does not want to talk further about new products. Links Tesla Q1 2021 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast Tesla Q1 2021 Shareholder Deck

April 26, 2021 · 7 min · dburkland
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How to use RaceRender with Tesla Track Mode

Intro After accepting delivery of my Model 3 Performance a little over 2 years ago I finally made the journey to Buttonwillow, CA for a TeslaCorsa event. It was my first time on a proper road course with my Model 3 and only 1 day after I had a bunch of track-related mods installed. During the event I had plenty of time to tinker with Track Mode and I was impressed by how quickly I was able to get up to speed thanks to the cars neutral yet intelligent handling characteristics. Because I was using Track Mode, the car recorded telemetry data and video using one of the front-facing cameras of every lap while on track. After the trip, I spent some time playing with RaceRender which allows you to add custom, data-fed overlays to your track videos. I ran into a few quirks along the way so I put together a short how-to article on how to get everything working. ...

April 21, 2021 · 2 min · dburkland