Model-X

Tesla is offering a bunch of incentives this quarter, so I put together a list of all the ones I’m aware of for your reference. If you’re in the market for a new vehicle and have questions, feel free to reach out! When it’s time to order, don’t miss out on three months of free Full Self-Driving by using my referral link: https://ts.la/daniel26500 Referral Program Incentive Description: New buyer gets 3 months of FSD when using a current owner’s referral link Products: All Tesla vehicles, Solar, Powerwall Regions: United States, Canada End Date: June 30, 2025 Free FSD Transfer ...

Introduction Tesla’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call was a long one, going almost 90 minutes. On the call Tesla leadership discussed a wide variety of topics including autonomy, Optimus, and energy, alongside its financial performance. They reiterated their commitment on bringing out new, low cost models in 2025 and provided more detail on their Unsupervised FSD rollout starting in Austin, TX this June. Here are my raw notes from the call: ...

Key Notes and Takeaways From 2024 Record Deliveries: Tesla set a new record for vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024, achieving an annualized rate close to 2 million vehicles. This was attributed to excellent work by the Tesla team in production and delivery management. Model Y Dominance: The Model Y was declared the best-selling vehicle globally in 2024, surpassing all other vehicles, not just EVs, highlighting Tesla’s market penetration. Autonomy Ambitions: Elon Musk stressed Tesla’s commitment to autonomy, predicting significant advancements in unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, with a planned launch in Austin in June 2025. Optimus Development: Tesla is rapidly developing Optimus, with plans to produce several thousand units for internal use by the end of 2025. The long-term vision sees Optimus contributing over $1 trillion in revenue. Energy Storage Growth: Tesla is expanding its energy storage capabilities with new factories, emphasizing the role of storage in enhancing grid efficiency and meeting future demand. Financial Performance: Despite challenges like lower ASPs due to discounts and financing options, Tesla grew both its auto and energy storage volumes, focusing on inventory reduction and cost per vehicle. Autonomy ...

Introduction Tesla’s Q3 2024 earnings call was a banger, revealing the company’s current standing as well as their future plans. If you are pressed for time or would just like a quick overview of today’s call, here is my summary based on the notes I recorded. Enjoy! Autonomy We, Robot event was successful, thousands of people were transported autonomously without a single incident 20 Cybercabs and 30 Model Y vehicles were present at the event FSD v12.5 introduced support for Cybertruck and end-to-end on highway support with a single stack Actually Smart Summon (ASS) widely released FSD v13 expected to provide 5-6x improvement in miles between intervention when compared to v12.5 When looking at the entire year (January 1st, 2024 - December 31st, 2024), Tesla expects miles between intervention to increase by 3 orders of magnitude Critical interventions have been reduced by 100x from early 2024 to present FSD v13 is expected to reduce critical interventions by 1000x from early 2024 Higher frame rate coming with FSD v13 By Q2 2025, Tesla aims to surpass the average miles between critical interventions for humans; This means at this point Tesla FSD will be statistically safer than a human driver Tesla will continue to offer up a free 30-day trial of FSD with every major release of FSD FSD take rate continues to increase significantly, especially after the 10/10 event Tesla has been operating a ride-hailing capability for employees in the Bay Area for almost a year now This ride-hailing offering has been utilizing safety drivers Ride-hailing is going to be rolled out to the public in 2025 for California, pending regulatory approval; Texas likely to be first due to faster regulatory process Q3 vehicle safety report: 1 crash per 7M miles of Autopilot usage (10x safer than US average) AI training capacity has been expanded for FSD and Optimus needs With recent additions in compute capacity, Tesla is not currently training compute constrained FSD problem areas are becoming more difficult to find as reliability improves (good problem) The new Optimus hand and forearm demoed at the We, Robot event, offers 22 degrees of freedom “We have the most advanced humanoid robot by a long shot, and moreover, the only company that has the ingredients ready to scale humanoid robots” -Elon Musk Elon believes Optimus will one day be Tesla’s most valuable product Vast majority of 7M vehicles produced are capable of autonomy Tesla has started training FSD with their current fleet of Semis Cybercab will be built to FMVSS regulations for nationwide sales like all other Tesla vehicles Tesla found it easier to focus FSD development on HW4 and backport to HW3 For HW3 owners, Tesla has reassured them they will be taken care of if HW3 proves to not be adequate for their cars to support unsupervised FSD “There is some chance that HW3 will not achieve a safety level that will allow for unsupervised FSD. If that turns out to be the case, we will upgrade those who bought HW3 & FSD for free” -Elon Musk xAI has been helpful to Tesla in scaling up training infrastructure and improving training resiliency Elon reiterated xAI’s goal of working on general artificial super intelligence while Tesla is hyperfocused on autonoomous cars and robots Elon mentioned that he believed that Tesla is one of hte most efficiecnt inference AI companies out there “It’s (Grok) answering questions on a 10kW rack, it’s like we can’t put that in a car, it’s a different problem” -Elon Musk “Please no!” -Lars Moravy When asked if Tesla will introduce support for X & Grok in-car, Elon said that would be"small fry things" He then went on to say in-car infotainment will continue to be a big focus, especially as autonomy performance grows Tesla will further improve the in-car browser experience so you can access anything Elon advocated for a national approval process for autonomy Low-cost models ...

Like I have done with previous earnings calls, I have compiled notes that I wanted to share from today’s 2023 Tesla Q1 Earnings Call. Enjoy! Opening remarks from Elon Musk General Model Y became best selling vehicle of any category in Europe & best-selling non-pickup truck vehicle in the United States Lots of uncertainty with macroeconomic climate Lowered prices while still maintaining some of the best margins in the industry Elon believes higher volume and lower cost is the right way forward for Tesla (vs low volume / high margin) Elon believes more margin to be unlocked thanks to autonomy Tesla is taking advantage of the current economic conditions as well as their position in their market Cybertruck Alpha versions of the Cybertruck continue to be built on the pilot line at Giga Texas Completing installation of volume production Cybertruck line at Giga Texas Cybertruck delivery event tentatively planned for Q3 Like all new products, Cybertruck production ramp will take time and follow S-curve (slow and accelerates over time) “A hall of famer” -Elon Musk (regarding Cybertruck) “Cybertruck is a very radicular product and not made in the same way other cars are made” -Elon Musk Energy & Mission Energy storage deployment in Q1 reached nearly 4GWH, thanks in part to production ramp at Lathrop Shanghai also mentioned Elon reiterated that stationary storage growth will exceed vehicle growth FSD Crossed over 150M millions driven by FSD Beta and this number continues to grow exponentially Tesla has key data advantage here due to the sheer size of the data training set (which constantly grows) Very focused on NN training capabilities which is a key factor in achieving full autonomy Making significant purchases of GPUs while simultaneously continuing to develop Dojo (which still has potential to replace traditional GPU clusters for training use cases) Dojo as a service is still on the table (think AWS-like offering) Opening remarks from Zach Kirkhorn Record vehicle production & deliveries Record energy volumes Automotive gross margin and operating margin reduced sequentially but still remain at healthy levels Automotive gross margins were impacted: Additional action to improve vehicle pricing One-time items like warranty adjustments on older Model S & X vehicles Deferred revenue on certain Autopilot features Further progress in reducing vehicle costs was made thanks to several logistical improvements as well as the start of commodities savings Giga Texas & Giga Berlin will continue to be margin headwinds until they reach their target volumes Q1 was the 3rd quarter in a multi-quarter plan to move to more regionally balanced mix of build & deliveries Results with lower deliveries than production in a quarter due to higher number of vehicles in transit at EOQ Particularly important & applicable to Model S & X as they started to deliver internationally Storage business is starting to take shape Growing at % of total revenue Growth driven by increasing demand for energy storage Highest gross profit yet in Q1 Approach is to grow volumes in vehicle & energy businesses as quickly as possible while focusing on: Cybertruck Next-gen platform I\n house cell production Autonomy & AI products Keeping the business healthy Q & A from Retail Investors Pricing Pricing is reviewed weekly based on where they are at globally Energy Storage Elon predicts Energy Storage to eclipse Vehicle business in terms of GWh (vehicle business may still be bigger in terms of revenue) As business grows and smooths out they will start including volumes in their reports later this year The goal is to get margins to match automotive business (~20%) by EOY 4680s Texas 4680 factory (about 50% complete) will be about 70% lower CapEx per GWh than typical cell factories (when fully ramped, inline with what was discussed at battery day) Still continuing to produce first-gen tabless cell (Kato Road Facility in California) as well as 2nd gen (more manufacturable version) at Texas today Corpus Christi Lithium refinery breaks ground in May and is expected to be partially online by end of this year Refinery uses sulfate-free spodumene refining process (produces beneficial byproduct which can be used in construction products) Demonstrated cathode precursor process (discussed at battery day) is now in final detailed design phase Cathode production is 50% equipment & 75% utilities installed at new Cathode plant in Austin Dry & wet commissioning this quarter and next quarter, first material production will be ready by end of year Big improvements with 4680 structural pack manufacturing 50% lower CapEx, 66% smaller factory for same output Will continue to use this design going forward and iterate design to B level (from current A architecture) Q1 was all about cost & quality Texas 4680 production increased 50% QoQ, through yields increased 12% Kato 4680 peak rate increased by 20%, through yields increased by 20% All together 25% reduction in COGs in quarter and on target for steady state cost targets over next year Steadily ramping production ahead of mass Cybertruck production next year Financials Expectations that all factories continue to improve all key metrics Still at max pain for commodities but starting to see a little bit of improvement here Lithium has dropped significantly and should result in a noticeable impact in Q2 / 2H 2023 Orders are in excess of production Cybertruck No details will be shared until Q3 delivery event “Incredible product” -Elon Musk Q & A from Financial Analysts Regional Exposure Many areas Tesla does not currently serve however there are plans to address this “High time Tesla offers its cars to the rest of the world” -Elon Musk FSD Elon declined comment on FSD take rate Current price is based on future value of having an autonomous vehicle Elon expects more “2 steps forward, 1 step back” with near future FSD updates “I think we’ll do it this year (regarding FSD)” -Elon Musk “Robotaxi” terminology is really a generic term for Tesla’s next-gen vehicle More details to come on this down the road “All of the vehicles that have HW3, which is vast majority of our fleet, will achieve full autonomy” -Elon Musk “Model 3 or Model Y will be a robotaxi, robotic taxi” -Elon Musk FSD has potential to create the largest value increase in history if it pans out General “We are in uncertain times” -Elon Musk Elon expects economical stormy weather for next 12 months and then assuming no geopolitical wild cards, things should heat up next spring Lithium bottleneck is more related to refining capacity vs mining capacity “Tesla will have the most lithium & cathode refining capacity in the world” -Elon Musk Elon mentioned they are doing this because they are forced to since others are not doing this About half of miss re: margin is attributed to pricing adjustments, other half related to things that are not reoccurring Elon believes no other company in the industry has more realtime data than Tesla and that allows them to quickly make intelligent decisions Tesla expects improved costs from suppliers but also reducing logistical overheads From a production perspective, they could possibly hit 2M but 1.8 remains their goal Tesla is not dropping prices in response to competition however Elon mentioned several times they could in fact sell cars for $0 profit however thanks to autonomy recoup margin later (a unique advantage for Tesla) Tesla is not trying to crush the competition and they gave an example of allowing 3rd party EVs to use the Supercharger network Tesla leadership does not see any limitations with direct sale model and is one of the fastest growing, complex product manufacturer ever Energy Should be closer to full production utilization in 2H 2023 Still a goal to develop heatpump for homes & commercial environments (on back burner for now) Tesla opened first Supercharger V4 location in Europe and first Magic Dock locations in NA in Q1 Key site layout & stall design will emphasize universal compatibility (no matter where the charge port is located) Going to continue to roll out these new offerings as they build new stations Always balancing servicing their own customers as well as non-Tesla EV customers Tesla has done a great job with this especially when you look how they’ve done in Europe

Opening remarks (Zach Kirkhorn) Big focus for Tesla over recent history is expansion and globalization of Model Y program Investor Day will be broken up into 5 parts “What does it take to to convert Earth to sustainable energy generation and use” Master Plan: Part 3 (Elon Musk & Drew Baglino) Tesla’s big goal is to show that there is a clear path to sustainable energy on Earth without destroying ourselves or the planet Detailed white paper will be published with their assumptions and calculations Over 80% of global energy comes from fossil fuels Half problem statement of fossil fuel economy 240TWh of battery energy storage to achieve that (combination of EVs and stationary storage) 8:1 ratio assumed meaning for 30TW of power we need 240TWh of energy storage This is not a big number relative to the global economy Electric economy will mine less ore than with fossil fuel economy All forms transportation (minus rockets) will go electric once energy battery production ramps enough All cars will go autonomous and electric, only a matter of time Conservative estimate based on assumptions around fleet size In reality fewer vehicles will be needed thanks to autonomy Heading rapidly towards autonomous & electric future Model 3 can go one mile on the same amount of energy it takes to boil a pot of water for pasta, and another to cook the pasta Modern EVs are extremely efficient Heatpumps are air conditioners in reverse that will be used to displace fossil fuel heat sources in homes At some point they might make heat pumps for homes Hydrogen could replace coal for things like steel production Needed for industrial processes Shipping accounts for 3% of global CO2 emissions Even w/ LFP long haul ships can be electrified Short haul planes easily doable, long haul flights will be in reach soon enough Long haul ships & planes need to be redesigned and switched to a different architecture to take advantage of electrified fuel source 450wh/kg is needed to convert long haul planes & ships to electrification and it already exists Tesla wants to produce 1TWh of energy per year as soon as they can Building a sustainable energy economy is less than sustaining existing fossil fuel economy Only requires 0.2% of available land Switching would dramatically reduce impact to environment 68 Gigatons of ore every year with fossil fuel economy Greatly reduced with switch to sustainable economy As we extract resources, we find more As Tesla has continued to grow, more core resources have become available Vast majority of heavy lifting in terms of electrified transport can be achieved by lithium iron phosphate batteries Only long range vehicles need nickel-based Lithium batteries Recycling efforts will make this ramp require less and less mined ore over time Vehicle Design (Franz von Holzhausen & Lars Moravy) ...

Like I have done with previous earnings calls, I have compiled notes that I wanted to share from today’s 2022 Tesla Q4 Earnings Call. Enjoy! Opening remarks from Elon Musk General 2022 fantastic year for Tesla, best year ever on every level Over 1.3M cars delivered in 2022, 17% operating margin, highest of any car maker Generated $12.5B in net income and $7.5B in free cash flow Tesla achieved these records despite numerous headwinds Most common question from investors is how is demand As of January 2023 Tesla has noticed the strongest ever demand year to date Demand is almost 2x the current production rate Model Y price has been increased due to increased demand Tesla expects the automotive industry as a whole to contract so price is very important with current state of economy Making very good progress on cost control and seeing the cost of production in Berlin & Texas drop as production ramps FSD FSD Beta has been deployed to 400,000 customers 100 million miles of FSD usage for city streets FSD released in light of exemplary Safety Statistics that the Tesla team has been closely tracking 4680s 4680s production reached 1000 cars per week at in 2022 Q4 4680 production capacity increased by 100 GWh with expansion plans for Giga Nevada Will continue to use other cell providers as well as cells produced internally Ultimate goal is to produce 1000 GWh per year Energy & Mission Energy storage saw record growth in 2022 and that continues to accelerate Tesla’s main goal is to continue accelerating the advent of sustainable energy & transport Tesla wants to make as many cars as possible Tesla wans to be the best manufacturer including that of technology Opening remarks from Zach Kirkhorn Revenue increased over 50% Operating income doubled Margins remained industry leading Sequential and annual margins were impacted by ASP reductions Rising interest rates in US increased cost of each vehicle by 10% Energy business had its strongest year yet Plan is to move aggressively Demand - Customer interest remains high Cost reduction Holding steady while rapidly increasing volume while increasing efficiency Accelerating implementation of improvements in Austin & Berlin where inefficiencies are the highest To ensure competitiveness going forward, prices have been adjusted accordingly so ASPs are expected to lower slightly going forward More to come on March investor day Q & A from retail investors IRA EV Tax Credits Long term Tesla expects the value of these tax credits to be significant especially as they ramp in the 100s of GWHs Since these incentives require domestic manufacturing they are splitting the credits with Panasonic in 2022 but expect that to change as they bring more domestic battery capacity online later this year (and in 2024) They expect the value of these incentives to be $150M-200M and growing as volumes grow Pretty well positioned as IRA incentivizes domestic battery production which Tesla already had in their immediate & future plans Expected ASP After Price Cuts In current forecast Tesla believes they’ll be above 20% automotive gross margins (excluding leases & $47k ASP across all models) The ASP reduction is not as large as reduction in configurator prices Most focused on operating margin Every time Tesla sells a vehicle they have the potential for future revenue from software (ex. FSD especially as it continues to get better) Elon still expects FSD to result in the biggest value increase in history Elon & Politics Elon states due to his follower count on Twitter he is popular and therefore mostly favorable Tesla does not officially monitor favorability of Elon 4680 Ramp (Texas) 1K vehicles / week was years in the making, big accomplishment for the Tesla team 1 of 4 4680 manufacturing lines in Giga Texas are in production, 3 are in the commissioning / install stage & continue Plan is to appropriately (cost effective) ramp 4680 production before start of production of CyberTruck Drive factory yields up as much as possible 2024 is planned to be a major year for 4680 HW4 CyberTruck will have HW4 For 2023 CyberTruck will not be a significant contributor but it will be in 2024 Elon said CyberTruck will be his personal vehicle of choice Upgrading cars w/ HW3 should not be needed as long as they can get to 200-300% safer than humans, HW4 may be 500-600% safer What really matters to Tesla is that they continue to improve the average safety on the road Cost and difficulty of retrofitting (for HW3 vehicles) would be quite significant and therefore not economically feasible Insurance Currently $300M premium run rate 20% QoQ growth States in which they are operating, 17% of customers are using Tesla insurance products This percentage keeps creeping up Most commonly see adoption occur when vehicle purchased vs after the fact Motivation of starting this business is to improve TCO of their vehicles Want to keep costs low and accessible to customers Competition helps drive costs down across the board Adjusted design of car and software to minimize cost of repair Avoid accident first and foremost by encouraging use of Autopilot Most accidents are fairly small CyberTruck Production to start sometime this summer Going to be very slow at the start Future Factories Will provide an update in the future and thinking about very carefully What’s the fastest path to 1000 GWh Q & A from Financial Analysts Production & Increasing Efficiencies Current production capacity is actually closer to 2M but saying 1.8M to be conservative due to potential external headwinds (like we have seen the last few years) If you look at size of Giga Nevada that is allocated to make 100 GWH, it is noticeably smaller than the space used to produces 35 GWh Elon expects competitors to struggle to keep up with Tesla’s manufacturing prowess New products are going to blow people’s minds Elon believes they have the most exciting product roadmap of any product on earth “More great ideas than they know what to do with” -Elon Musk Expect bumps along the way including a recession in 2023 Long term Elon believes Tesla will still be the most valuable company on earth Lithium costs per car expected to rise in 2023 and therefore do not expect COGS to get back to $36k Continue to re-design supply chain to reduce costs Fleet is starting to mature and gathering a lot of data to optimize for margin going forward Later this year they’ll be looking at the powertrain side materials where they are paying for perf than they need or more content without sacrificing reliability Elon expects to see a deflation in input costs which should improve margins 1.8M unit forecast estimate is production capacity constrained, not related cell supply Not all of 4680s produced in Giga Nevada will go into the Semi According to Elon future products will use the 4680 Elon believes it is counterproductive to ramp number of products without appropriately scaling battery production Autonomy / FSD Excitement around FSD continues to grow and is resulting in an increase in take rate Tesla is both a software and hardware company and many forget that according to Elon HW3 is still the most efficient inference computer out there even though its 5 years old from design Fully recognize EAP cost, recognized a portion of deferred revenue for FSD for features that are available, some deferred until they are ready for public consumption Tesla still believes nobody is close from a general autonomous driving perspective “You can’t see 2nd place with a telescope” -Elon Musk Elon doesn’t expect that to last forever Whoever can keep up with EVs will be there Going to keep focus on total vehicle space and Car companies in China are most competitive in world Elon thinks a company out of China is most likely to be in 2nd Tesla China team is winning in China Dojo & Optimus Dojo slated to be used by Tesla by end of 2023 Optimus continues to be developed and potential is endless with this product alone Tesla thinks Dojo will be competitive with NVIDIA H1 at end of 2023, surpass it in 2024 They are going to focus on energy usage per frame of video when training Do see potential for order of magnitude in training performance compared to traditional GPU training clusters Very similar to ASICs being CPU for specific tasks Communication between Dojo modules is extremely efficient Efficiency w/ inference not going away especially when you expand outside of vehicles Captive Financing Captive financing has been used to plug gaps in markets for existing 3rd party products Couple offerings in Europe Energy loans in US Leasing Using captives to support vehicle sales Zach believes there is an opportunity to grow captive financing and plumbing is in place to do more Cash is required to grow so want to be careful on how much they invest into this aspect of the business